MKT 626 | Forecasting churn and CLV: Tool 1

The Coin Shakeout

100 customers, each a coin minted with its own chance of death every round. Pale gold coins are lower risk; deep crimson coins are at risk. Flip and count.

Round
0
 
Alive
100
100%
Dropped
0
 
Survivors’ avg P(death)
–
minted at –

How many are still alive?

Who are survivors?

alive now the minted cohort