Run from program Alliance_Sim, version 3.130 5/26/92 11:09
In this version:
A) energy is being minimized, and
B) within alliance distance is 0 while between alliance distance is 1
Run Number 12
Input file was asim.1937.prop
Size = COW National Capability index. Year = 1937.
European countries w/ Major alliance.
Props coded 7/15/91. Includes Portugal.
Pre-WWII theory based operationalizations.
Scaling Factor for propensities was 0.00100
Propensity data came from raw input. The data which generated propensities are:
File created 5/26/1992 at 11:0 1
This file created by Propensity_Maker,version 3.320 from input file asim.1937.raw
# Name Size Ethnic_ Border_ War_ Proportion Govt
Conflict Conflict History Cath Prot Orth Musl Ath Othr Type
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1 Britain 0.0747 0 0 3,5 0.390 0.610 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
2 France 0.0493 0 3 3,5 0.975 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
3 Germany 0.1171 12,6,15 12 4,7,9,10,11,12 0.339 0.654 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 2
4 Italy 0.0396 11 11 5 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2
5 Hungary 0.0046 11,7,6 6,7,11 7,9,10,11 0.649 0.272 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.051 1
6 Czech. 0.0130 12 12 0 0.782 0.082 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.025 1
7 Rumania 0.0082 10 10 0 0.150 0.070 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.043 1
8 Denmark 0.0020 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
9 Greece 0.0038 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.979 0.021 0.000 0.000 4
10 USSR 0.1495 12 12 12,13,14,15,16 0.030 0.045 0.562 0.337 0.000 0.025 3
11 Yugoslav 0.0061 0 0 0 0.378 0.017 0.492 0.113 0.000 0.000 4
12 Poland 0.0184 15 15 0 0.412 0.064 0.287 0.000 0.000 0.237 4
13 Estonia 0.0006 0 0 0 0.000 0.810 0.190 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
14 Latvia 0.0012 0 0 0 0.258 0.595 0.095 0.000 0.000 0.052 4
15 Lithuani 0.0010 0 0 0 0.855 0.040 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.078 4
16 Finland 0.0019 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
17 Portugal 0.0027 0 0 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
Initial Propensity*Size Matrix (that is, P(ij)*S(i)*S(j)) is :
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.1 -12.8 -1.8 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.2 -0.0 -14.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
2 France 5.1 1.0 -15.3 -0.0 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.0 -9.6 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
3 Germany -12.8 -15.3 1.0 1.6 -0.3 -2.6 -1.8 -0.1 -0.5 -40.2 -0.7 -6.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.8 -0.0 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.0 -7.7 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 -1.6 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Czech. 1.3 1.1 -2.6 -0.1 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.4 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.7 0.5 -1.8 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 -0.5 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -14.5 -9.6 -40.2 -7.7 -1.6 -2.4 -3.6 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -8.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -6.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.7 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Global optimum alliance structure :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.34 29759 48665
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia
Lithuani Finland Portugal
0 _other_ alliance(s) had the same energy (in the reported half).
Permuted Propensity * Size Matrix is :
1 2 6 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 7 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.1 1.3 0.2 -0.0 -14.5 0.0 -12.8 -1.8 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
2 France 5.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.0 -9.6 0.1 -15.3 -0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
6 Czech. 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.4 0.0 -2.6 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -14.5 -9.6 -2.4 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -40.2 -7.7 -1.6 -3.6 -8.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
3 Germany -12.8 -15.3 -2.6 -0.1 -0.5 -40.2 -0.7 1.0 1.6 -0.3 -1.8 -6.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.8 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -7.7 -0.4 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -1.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.6 0.0 -1.8 -0.3 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -8.5 0.0 -6.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.7 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
There are 2 optima in the non-complement half. They are:
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.34 29759 48665
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
448 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -182.39 448 16871
Alliance 1: Britain France Germany Italy Hungary Czech. Rumania Denmark Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Greece USSR Yugoslav
Complementary optima of those already seen will not be reported here.
Frustrations of all countries at the starting alliance and (non-complement) optima are:
These are frustrations defined as Frust(i)= Sum over j<>i of
Prop(i,j)*Size(j)*Dist(i,j)
Alliance Start=22528 29759 448
Britain -152.46 -176.20 -193.84
France -284.80 -286.15 -193.86
Germany -647.72 -615.99 -352.92
Italy 30.65 -257.69 -206.06
Hungary -353.58 -301.53 -360.84
Czech. -16.84 -222.77 -183.47
Rumania -215.80 -272.39 -429.04
Denmark -20.60 -59.27 -193.82
Greece -122.97 -114.21 -115.72
USSR -295.31 -420.07 -600.13
Yugoslav -123.88 -188.44 -169.53
Poland -350.03 -444.65 -458.25
Estonia 64.21 -137.21 -177.88
Latvia 60.73 -131.21 -183.55
Lithuani -68.72 -111.40 -188.13
Finland -20.60 -154.45 -343.32
Portugal 52.85 43.01 -44.36
Starting alliance configuration :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -155.39 29759 0
Alliance 1: Britain France Italy Rumania Denmark Greece USSR
Yugoslav Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Germany Hungary Czech.
Path from starting configuration to the local optima was :
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -155.39 29759 0
30720 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -177.79 29759 0
28672 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -182.98 29759 0
28704 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -187.77 29759 0
28712 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -188.24 29759 0
28714 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -188.52 29759 0
28715 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -188.76 29759 0
28731 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -189.01 29759 0
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -189.25 29759 0
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.34 29759 48665
Top 50 (or maximum) potential alliances follow :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.34 29759 48665
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -189.25 29759
0
30271 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.14 29759
0
29743 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -189.09 29759
0
28735 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -189.09 29759
0
29758 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -189.07 29759
0
30267 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -189.05 29759
0
28731 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -189.01 29759
0
29739 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -189.01 29759
0
29754 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -189.00 29759
0
29757 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -188.99 29759
0
29753 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -188.91 29759
0
30255 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -188.88 29759
0
30270 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -188.87 29759
0
29751 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -188.84 29759
0
28719 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -188.84 29759
0
28734 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -188.83 29759
0
29742 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -188.82 29759
0
29247 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.81 29759
0
28733 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -188.81 29759
0
30251 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -188.80 29759
0
30266 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -188.80 29759
0
28715 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -188.76 29759
0
28730 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -188.76 29759
0
29747 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -188.76 29759
0
30269 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -188.76 29759
0
29738 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -188.75 29759
0
29741 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -188.75 29759
0
29243 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -188.74 29759
0
28729 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -188.73 29759
0
29756 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -188.72 29759
0
30265 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -188.67 29759
0
29737 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -188.66 29759
0
29752 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -188.65 29759
0
30263 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -188.64 29759
0
30254 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -188.62 29759
0
28727 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -188.60 29759
0
29735 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 -188.60 29759
0
28718 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -188.59 29759
0
29750 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -188.58 29759
0
29231 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -188.57 29759
0
28717 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -188.57 29759
0
29246 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -188.56 29759
0
30259 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -188.55 29759
0
28732 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -188.55 29759
0
30250 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -188.54 29759
0
28723 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -188.52 29759
0
28714 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -188.52 29759
0
29731 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 -188.52 29759
0
30253 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -188.51 29759
0
University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Contact cscs@umich.edu.
Revised November 4, 1996.