Run from program Alliance_Sim, version 3.130 5/26/92 11:02
In this version:
A) energy is being minimized, and
B) within alliance distance is 0 while between alliance distance is 1
Run Number 11
Input file was asim.1936.prop
Size = COW National Capability index. Year = 1936.
European countries w/ Major alliance.
Props coded 7/15/91. Includes Portugal.
Pre-WWII theory based operationalizations.
Scaling Factor for propensities was 0.00100
Propensity data came from raw input. The data which generated propensities are:
File created 5/26/1992 at 11:0 1
This file created by Propensity_Maker,version 3.320 from input file asim.1936.raw
# Name Size Ethnic_ Border_ War_ Proportion Govt
Conflict Conflict History Cath Prot Orth Musl Ath Othr Type
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1 Britain 0.0745 0 0 3,5 0.390 0.610 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
2 France 0.0532 0 3 3,5 0.975 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
3 Germany 0.1149 12,6,15 12 4,7,9,10,11,12 0.339 0.654 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 2
4 Italy 0.0403 11 11 5 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2
5 Hungary 0.0045 11,7,6 6,7,11 7,9,10,11 0.649 0.272 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.051 1
6 Czech. 0.0115 12 12 0 0.782 0.082 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.025 1
7 Rumania 0.0078 10 10 0 0.150 0.070 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.043 1
8 Denmark 0.0020 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
9 Greece 0.0035 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.979 0.021 0.000 0.000 4
10 USSR 0.1501 12 12 12,13,14,15,16 0.030 0.045 0.562 0.337 0.000 0.025 3
11 Yugoslav 0.0059 0 0 0 0.378 0.017 0.492 0.113 0.000 0.000 4
12 Poland 0.0183 15 15 0 0.412 0.064 0.287 0.000 0.000 0.237 4
13 Estonia 0.0006 0 0 0 0.000 0.810 0.190 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
14 Latvia 0.0013 0 0 0 0.258 0.595 0.095 0.000 0.000 0.052 4
15 Lithuani 0.0010 0 0 0 0.855 0.040 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.078 4
16 Finland 0.0019 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
17 Portugal 0.0027 0 0 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
Initial Propensity*Size Matrix (that is, P(ij)*S(i)*S(j)) is :
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.5 -12.6 -1.8 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.0 -14.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
2 France 5.5 1.0 -16.2 -0.1 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 -0.0 -10.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
3 Germany -12.6 -16.2 1.0 1.6 -0.3 -2.2 -1.7 -0.1 -0.4 -39.6 -0.7 -5.9 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.8 -0.1 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.0 -7.9 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 -1.5 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Czech. 1.2 1.1 -2.2 -0.1 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -2.1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.6 0.5 -1.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -14.5 -10.4 -39.6 -7.9 -1.5 -2.1 -3.4 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -8.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -5.9 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.5 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.7 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Global optimum alliance structure :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.46 29759 47945
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
0 _other_ alliance(s) had the same energy (in the reported half).
Permuted Propensity * Size Matrix is :
1 2 6 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 7 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.5 1.2 0.2 -0.0 -14.5 0.0 -12.6 -1.8 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1
2 France 5.5 1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.0 -10.4 0.1 -16.2 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
6 Czech. 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.1 0.0 -2.2 -0.1 -0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -14.5 -10.4 -2.1 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -39.6 -7.9 -1.5 -3.4 -8.5 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
3 Germany -12.6 -16.2 -2.2 -0.1 -0.4 -39.6 -0.7 1.0 1.6 -0.3 -1.7 -5.9 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.8 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -7.9 -0.4 1.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.2 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -1.5 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 -3.4 0.0 -1.7 -0.3 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 -8.5 0.0 -5.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.7 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
There are 2 optima in the non-complement half. They are:
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.46 29759 47945
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
448 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -182.12 448 17591
Alliance 1: Britain France Germany Italy Hungary Czech. Rumania Denmark Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Greece USSR Yugoslav
Complementary optima of those already seen will not be reported here.
Frustrations of all countries at the starting alliance and (non-complement) optima are:
These are frustrations defined as Frust(i)= Sum over j<>i of
Prop(i,j)*Size(j)*Dist(i,j)
Alliance Start=20480 29759 448
Britain -166.89 -173.86 -194.62
France -301.97 -280.87 -194.69
Germany -676.65 -624.40 -353.80
Italy 32.87 -257.77 -206.49
Hungary -357.23 -298.92 -361.33
Czech. -195.28 -219.47 -184.29
Rumania -227.08 -271.95 -431.05
Denmark -34.03 -59.71 -194.57
Greece -121.76 -112.18 -113.90
USSR -273.93 -414.37 -597.40
Yugoslav -124.59 -187.37 -167.83
Poland -322.53 -442.63 -460.22
Estonia 61.88 -138.13 -178.64
Latvia 56.25 -131.42 -184.32
Lithuani -76.04 -110.04 -188.94
Finland -34.03 -153.75 -344.67
Portugal 41.87 45.33 -44.59
Starting alliance configuration :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
20480 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -158.71 29759 0
Alliance 1: Britain France Italy Czech. Rumania Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Germany Hungary
Path from starting configuration to the local optima was :
20480 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -158.71 29759 0
28672 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -181.90 29759 0
28704 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -186.83 29759 0
28712 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -187.34 29759 0
28714 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -187.62 29759 0
29738 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -187.89 29759 0
29754 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -188.14 29759 0
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -188.38 29759 0
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.46 29759 47945
Top 50 (or maximum) potential alliances follow :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.46 29759 47945
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -188.38 29759 0
30271 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.26 29759 0
29743 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -188.22 29759 0
29758 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -188.21 29759 0
28735 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -188.17 29759 0
30267 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -188.17 29759 0
29754 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -188.14 29759 0
29739 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -188.13 29759 0
29757 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -188.12 29759 0
28731 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -188.09 29759 0
29753 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -188.04 29759 0
30255 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -188.00 29759 0
30270 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -188.00 29759 0
29742 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -187.96 29759 0
28734 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -187.93 29759 0
29751 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -187.93 29759 0
28719 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -187.93 29759 0
30266 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -187.93 29759 0
30251 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -187.92 29759 0
29247 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -187.90 29759 0
28733 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -187.89 29759 0
29738 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -187.89 29759 0
30269 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -187.88 29759 0
29741 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -187.88 29759 0
29756 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -187.87 29759 0
28730 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -187.86 29759 0
28715 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -187.85 29759 0
29747 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -187.85 29759 0
29243 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -187.82 29759 0
28729 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -187.81 29759 0
30265 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -187.80 29759 0
29737 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -187.79 29759 0
29752 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -187.79 29759 0
30254 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -187.75 29759 0
30263 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -187.72 29759 0
28718 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -187.69 29759 0
29735 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 -187.69 29759 0
29750 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -187.68 29759 0
30250 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -187.68 29759 0
29246 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -187.66 29759 0
28717 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -187.65 29759 0
28732 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -187.65 29759 0
29231 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -187.65 29759 0
28727 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -187.65 29759 0
30253 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -187.64 29759 0
30259 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -187.63 29759 0
30268 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -187.63 29759 0
29740 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 -187.63 29759 0
28714 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -187.62 29759 0
University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Contact cscs@umich.edu.
Revised November 4, 1996.