"Scarcity and misuse of freshwater pose a serious and growing threat to
sustainable development and protection of the environment.  Human health
and welfare, food security, industrial development and the ecosystems on
which they depend are all at risk, unless water and land resources are
managed in a more ecologically appropriate manner than they have been in
the past.  The problems are far from speculative in nature - they are
here, and they affect humanity now." 
Dublin Statement, January, 1992

Water Scarcity
	"Scarcity is an odd word for something that covers almost
three-quarters of the surface of the globe."   This sentence is, of
course, referring to water.  Globally, water is plentiful: the total
volume of water on Earth is estimated to be one billion, three hundred
sixty million cubic kilometers.   Unfortunately, 97% of the water on our
planet is saltwater which, without desalination, is not readily available
for human use: the global supply of usable fresh water only amounts to
about 1% of the total water supply.  (See Table 1.)
	Although water is not a globally tradable commodity, it is shared
by humans throughout the world.  It is continuously used and reused as it
travels through the hydrologic cycle and its volume is constant -- neither
increasing nor diminishing.  Freshwater is a fundamentally important
resource because it is essential for survival, because its use underlies
all agricultural and industrial processes, and because it cannot be
substituted for technologically.  Freshwater, as fate would have it, is
not evenly distributed throughout the world: it is often available at the
wrong time, place, or quality.  Thus, when discussing water scarcity the
issues at hand are both the quantity and the quality of freshwater
resources available to a particular region.  (See Figure 1.)

Table 1: Water in the Hydrosphere Water Source Global % of % of Avail. % water Volume Total Total for Avail. (1,000's km3) Global Global human for human Supply Fresh use? use.* Salt Water Oceans 1,370,000 97.61 No Saline Lakes 104 0.008 No Fresh Water Frozen Polar Ice Glaciers 29,000 2.08 80.0 No Unfrozen Groundwater 4,000 0.29 19.7 Yes 99 Freshwater Lakes 125 0.009 0.2 Yes 1 Soil & Subsoil Moisture 67 0.005 0.04 No 0.2 Rivers, Streams 1.2 0.00009 0.02 Yes 0.1 Atmospheric Water Vapor 14 0.0009 0.02 No 0.1 * Fresh and unfrozen water.
Figure 1. Annual Internal Renewable Water Resources per Continent--Percents and Cubic Kilometers.

In many lands water scarcity poses a threat to both health and wealth. Hydrologists designate water stressed countries as those with annual supplies of 1,000 - 2,000 m3/person. When the figure drops below 1,000 m3, nations are considered water scarce. Chronic water shortages affect 40% of the world's population, spread across 80 nations; current estimates show the demand for water increasing at 2.3% annually, or doubling every 21 years, thus deepening the need. Water shortages are worst in poor countries: 26 countries today fall into the water scarce category and face severe constraints on food production, economic development, and human and environmental welfare from a lack of usable fresh water. The conservation of water and the regulation of rivers for irrigation and generation of hydroelectric power are matters of great social and economic importance in the world today, particularly in arid countries. International River Basins "An international river is one whose water course traverses, or whose catchment basin lies in, the territories of two or more sovereign states." More than 200 separate river basins in the world are shared by two or more countries. These international rivers constitute a significant portion of the world's freshwater resources and are great assets to the nations that share them. Since a basin is interconnected through the flow of a river's waters, the use of waters in one part of the basin may affect the use in another part. Incentives for cooperative management do not exist when an upstream country uses an international river to the detriment of a downstream country that has no reciprocal power over the upstream country: the management of water is further complicated by the tendency to treat water as a commodity rather than as a finite natural resource. Consequently, shared river resources often suffer greater environmental abuse and are not as productively used as comparable national water resources. The uneven distribution of positive and negative physical impacts stemming from differing demands among the basin countries for water resources frustrate cooperative action to manage and develop the river for mutual benefit. East Africa, specifically the Nile River region, is an area that exemplifies these concepts. The Nile River Basin In East Africa and the Middle East freshwater is scarce and widely shared by countries with enormous economic, military, and political differences; over-exploitation, depletion, and deterioration of freshwater in rivers, lakes, and groundwater aquifers are prevalent problems. Most of the known conventional water resources have already been developed or will soon be fully exploited in most of the region's countries and, by the end of this century, six Nile riparians will exceed the hydrologic measure of water scarcity. The water resources in this arid area are unevenly distributed and used, and every major river in the region crosses international borders, thus making the potential for conflict over water great. (See Maps 1 and 2 in appendix.) Figure 2. Nile River Watershed Area by State.

The Nile River Basin, along with all the water it carries, traverses the territories of nine separate nations: Burundi, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, the Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zaire. (See Figure 2.) Although these countries share one of the greatest rivers in the world, many inequities over this common resource exist and are especially difficult to redress. The Nile presents a classic riparian problem: a river does not recognize boundaries between states - it flows continuously. The water flowing from the source is the same water that leaves the mouth of the river and enters the ocean. (See Figure 3.) The ways in which it is diverted, collected, used, and returned to the stream determines the quality and quantity of water each successive downstream nation will receive. Conflicts over Nile River water provide examples of unresolved international water issues in a shared basin. Project Focus Water is pervasive in all biological and physical systems, and its use is inextricably intertwined with many of society's efforts to enhance economic and social well-being. Water is a substance of paramount ecological, economic and social importance. Interrelationships inherent in water use should encourage integrated basinwide management strategies. Nile basin countries, instead of opposing each other, could direct their attentions toward multinational agreements and policies, defining collective basinwide management strategies. Developing the Nile's water resources for common benefit will require a cooperative approach treating the Nile Basin as one hydrologic unit and all riparian states as equal stakeholding partners. Figure 3. The Nile River.

Issues In an International River Basin The Nile region boasts a unique situation with regard to economics and development. The pattern of water demand and use in the Nile basin contrasts sharply with the pattern of supply: the upper valley states, in particular Ethiopia, are best placed geographically, but the lower valley states, especially Egypt, have the vital resource interest and can exercise decisive military and economic power. The paradox is that the countries contributing the most water are using the least, but the countries using the most are those that have the power. The utilization level of Nile waters by the co-basin states varies with their respective socio-economic development: Egypt, the most developed nation in the basin, uses 55.5 km3 of water each year and projects demands of 65.5 km3. The Sudan, the most rapidly developing basin nation, consumes about 13 km3 per year with a projected use of 30 km3 expected as agricultural irrigation expands. Egypt and the Sudan account for over 90% of the water drawn from the Nile. However, there are seven other basin states and their demand for water will inevitably grow. (See Figure 4.) The upper riparian states, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Kenya, Burundi, and Zaire, utilize 0.05 km3 collectively; Ethiopia utilizes only 0.6 km3. This is ironic because combined, these states contribute 72 km3 of water per year, or about 86 percent of the Nile's flow. Figure 4. Water Situations for Selected Nile Basin States.

Political boundaries present real obstacles to efficient water use and are often more difficult to overcome than physical ones. Much of the strain surrounding water in the Nile basin stems from a zero-sum game perception: one nation's gain is another nation's loss. As long as nations remain locked in such thinking, the tension and distrust among them will persist. A country faced with the prospect for a cooperative endeavor has three broad options: (1) to seek international agreement with neighboring states for joint management or development; (2) to develop a national plan that will maximize the country's net benefits from the same resources irrespective of other basin countries' actions; or (3) to retain the status quo and do nothing. The determination of the most favorable option is based upon the assumption that for each party the net benefits desired from international agreement must be greater than those associated with the national option, which in turn must be greater than the status quo alternative. All nine basin states could equitably share, utilize, and manage natural resources to the benefit and welfare of the basin's population, but optimum development will require treating the drainage basin as a unit and breaking through the barriers. "The tendency of political analysts has been to make alarmist predictions based on extrapolations of competing demands for water in the face of dwindling supplies while ignoring the great potential for managing and moderating those demands internally." The task calls for a fundamental change in perception and attitude. Water must be recognized as a valuable and vulnerable resource. It must no longer be taken for granted as an inexhaustible free good: this leads to perceptions of water scarcity. Scarcity is, to some extent, a relative concept. The Nile states, although not water rich, do have a fairly substantial freshwater resource available for their use. Unfortunately, the pattern of water allocation, along with policies that discourage (or at least do not encourage) efficient utilization lead to a perception that water is more scarce than in actuality. Nile water is currently mismanaged and heavily misused which exacerbates regional water problems. Management, therefore, must be addressed by all the basin states to maximize available water resources, since options for developing new supplies are severely limited. A management model has to be a combination of efficient allocation principles for locally competing demands and rules for fair regional sharing between up and downstream users. Integrated water management can be contemplated on at least three levels: basinwide, regional, and local. Great opportunities exist for better use of water before it is eventually lost through discharge to the sea or evaporation: most involve improved management practices at all levels. The Nile is a geographical unit -- projects for its full development must also form a unity, the parts of which must work together. Before discussing the shared problems and management opportunities available to the parties involved, it is important to understand the region's hydrology, or where the Nile water comes from in the first place. Nile River Hydrology The Nile is one of the great natural wonders of the world: it is the longest river, flowing south to north 6,825 kilometers (km) over 35 degrees of latitude. The Nile's catchment basin covers approximately one-tenth of the African continent, with an area of 3,007,000 square kilometers. (km2) (See Map 3 in appendix.) The Nile basin, because of its size and variety of climates and topographies, constitutes one of the most complex of all major river basins. For the vastness of the Nile basin, however, the river's annual discharge is relatively small. The annual flow of the Nile is about 84 billion cubic meters (bcm). The Nile is distinguished from other great rivers of the world since half of its course flows through country with no effective rainfall. Throughout the northern reaches of the Nile human civilizations have been dependent upon the river for their very survival: without the river, Egyptian civilization would not exist. (See Maps 4 and 5 in appendix.) The Nile has two major tributaries, the White Nile and the Blue Nile. These two principal headwaters are very different from each other: they arise in contrasting climatic and physiographical areas and are characterized by disparate hydrological regimes. (See Figure 5.) The White Nile flows out of the tropical rainbelt of Central Africa with relatively little interseasonal variation. Its principal source is Lake Victoria, the second largest freshwater lake in the world after Lake Superior. Nearly one-third of Victoria's entire inflow is derived from the 60,000 km2 Kagera River catchment. Most of Rwanda and Burundi lie in this basin, while 33 percent and 10 percent of the catchment area fall within Tanzania and Uganda, respectively. Lake Victoria straddles the equator and lies 5,611 km from the mouth of the river. Figure 5. Cross Sections of the Two Major Nile Tributaries from their Sources to the Mediterranean Sea.

From this lake issues the Victoria Nile, which passes through Lakes Kyoga and Albert. From Lake Albert to Nimule on the Uganda-Sudan border, the river is known as the Albert Nile. After plunging through the Fola rapids and into the Sudan, the river becomes the Behr el-Jebel (meaning mountain sea) and travels over a 168 km distance to reach Juba, the capital of southern Sudan. At this point the river has 4,787 km to travel before reaching the Mediterranean Sea. A great deal of the Behr el-Jebel's waters, however, never reach the sea. North of Juba the river reaches the bottom of its upstream drainage basin. Its slope flattens dramatically: water spills out over its banks and spreads out in all directions, forming a giant papyrus swamp called the Sudd (the barrier). The total area of the great swamps of the upper Nile can never be measured with precision since their size varies with the season, governed by the fluctuations in outfall from the equatorial lakes. But the size has been estimated to range from 16,931 km2 to 30,600 km2 during the rainy season, and the permanent swamp area is about 6,000 km2. As the river moves through the Sudd it loses about one-half of its total discharge - approximately 14 bcm - through evaporation, but maintains sufficient velocity to cut a slow meandering 600 km course until it reaches Lake No. There it is joined by other tributaries: the Behr el-Ghazal, which receives its water from Zaire, and the Behr el-Arab and Lo Rivers of western Sudan. Known then as the White Nile, the river jogs east, picks up the flow of the Sobat River that rises in the Ethiopian Highlands, and turns to Malakal, 3,832 km from the river's mouth. From this point to Khartoum (the convergence point of the White and the Blue Nile Rivers), a distance of 807 km, the White Nile receives no additional water. The Blue Nile flows from the highlands of Ethiopia and is strongly seasonal, subject to the annual monsoons streaming in from the Indian Ocean. The principal source of the Blue Nile is Lake Tana, but over its course, it picks up the flow of two seasonal tributaries, the Dinder and the Rahad. The Blue Nile flows approximately 2,500 km from its headwaters to Khartoum. Flowing downstream from Khartoum is the main Nile itself. Except for the seasonal discharge of the Atbara River that enters 320 km north of Khartoum, the Nile receives no perennial sources of water over the rest of its 3,000 km journey to the sea. This is the longest stretch of river in the world for which this can be said, and is all the more notable considering the flow is through the eastern reaches of the largest desert in the world, the Sahara. All waters of the Nile are derived from rainfall upon the Ethiopian plateau and upon the hinterlands of the Equatorial lakes. As one moves downstream from these regions annual precipitation declines in volume and increases in variability. While rainfall at the headwaters of both Niles is abundant it is by no means consistent. The seasonal rainfall fluctuations in the Blue Nile headwater region of Ethiopia are much more marked than those prevailing at the source of the White Nile. During the summer months (the flood season) the Blue Nile predominates, accounting for some 90 percent of the united river's flow, an average of 10 bcm per month. During the winter and spring months (the dry season), however, the Blue Nile delivers no more than 0.5 bcm per month, so it is the White Nile that sustains the flow with its delivery of about 2 bcm per month. (See Figure 6, also see Maps 6 and 7 in appendix.) In sum, approximately 86 percent of the Nile's flow originates in Ethiopia: the Blue Nile contributes 73 percent and the Atbara 13 percent. The other 14 percent is contributed by the White Nile. The united Nile's annual delivery to Aswan generally ranges from 80 bcm to 90 bcm. However, depending on the vagaries of the monsoonal weather over Ethiopia, the variation can be much greater. This is the heart of the matter: the total volume of water available in any given year is subject to substantial hydrologic variability. Precipitation over the Nile basin, and consequently Nile discharge, has fluctuated both historically and prehistorically. Figure 6. Relative Contributions of the White Nile, Blue Nile, and Atbara Tributaries to the Main Nile River.

Substantial variations in Nile precipitation have occurred on long (>1,000 year) and short (<10 year) timescales. In the past, these variant factors have been exclusively natural in origin, but the progressive human impact on the global environment over recent centuries has now led to the possibility of anthropogenic forcing of Nile Basin precipitation. In other words, natural processes are affected by human practices. The magnitude of historical fluctuations in Nile discharge experienced both in this century and in previous millennia is unlikely to be lessened in the future. Regional land-cover changes, agricultural and urban development, population explosion, and increased global greenhouse gas concentrations may well increase the amplitude of such fluctuations to main Nile discharge. Any future management plan of the Nile must consider these factors. Basinwide Management The most broad approach to integrated water management addresses the interrelationships between water and social and economic development. At this basinwide management level, interest lies in overarching policies and practices that can benefit all riparian countries within the basin. The concern is to determine the extent to which water is both an opportunity for and a barrier against development, and to ensure that water is managed and used such that social and economic growth may be sustained over the long term. The multiplicity of nations represents both the single most powerful obstacle to basinwide development planning as well as the most compelling argument favoring such an approach. Almost all countries in the Nile basin face a number of environmental problems, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and sedimentation, as well as social and political problems, such as lack of appropriate institutions, financial resources, and trained manpower for environmental protection and management. These problems, coupled with poverty and high population growth, pose serious threats to the water resource and hence the life support system of the basin's environment. It is therefore important that all Nile basin states pool their efforts to protect the environment and avert disasters such as drought, famine, desertification, and floods. Optimal development of the basin's water resources depends on agreement and cooperation between individual countries that share several common difficulties. Among them are population growth, insufficient agricultural production, and evaporative losses. These all directly impact the available water supply for all basin countries. An integrated approach to resolving these issues is most logical given the fact that all countries have a stake in the outcome. In addition, since these dilemmas transcend international boundaries, any action taken by one nation will almost assuredly impact other nations in the region. Prior to a discussion of the benefits and constraints associated with a basinwide management approach, the major problems driving the need for such an approach must first be addressed. Population Not surprisingly, as population grows and demand increases, so does the pressure on freshwater supplies and the capacity for conflicts. "In many countries in the Nile basin population growth, often at about 3 per cent per annum, is on a collision course with water resources." Population growth is the most fundamental constraint aggravating the water shortage in the Nile basin. Increased populations affect the demand for water in several ways. A larger population will need more water for human consumption, for livestock, and for industrial and commercial activities. Population growth increases the demand for food, and hence for irrigation and agricultural development. In water scarce countries, population size and consumption patterns will determine quality of life. As a consequence, the Nile riparians' freshwater needs to support health, quality of life, and socioeconomic development are rapidly increasing. Until recent years the use of Nile water has gradually increased, keeping pace with the increase in population. The nine Nile basin states are, however, faced with the prospect of continuing population increases, but with only limited further water available. The population increase in these regions with already high levels of water scarcity may be expected to generate water crises as increased numbers of humans will impact both water quantity and quality. The populations of Egypt, the Sudan, and Ethiopia have grown steadily since 1960. Egypt's population alone grows by another million people every nine months. By the year 2025, Ethiopia is forecast to have a population of approximately 122 million, 20 percent higher than that of Egypt. Along with the Nile countries themselves, pressure is added by the fact that the Horn of Africa harbors one of the world's largest refugee populations. In total, the population of co-basin states is expected to reach 812 million from the present 246 million by the year 2040. Close relationships exist between water resources, population health and land use. (See Graphs 1, 2, and 3.) A growing population needs not only water, but also biomass to provide food, fodder, fuelwood, and timber: the demographic element of food supply will continue to undermine the attempts of all governments to meet food demands. Water scarcity may constrain land-use options through the risk of crop failures and water supply problems caused by growing populations and industrial sectors. In addition, headwater resources of the Nile have not been extensively developed - the main development has taken place in the semi-arid and arid zones of the basin - where water is most lacking. In view of Egypt's population growth and arid climate, Lake Nasser (the storage reservoir created by the Aswan High Dam) by itself cannot provide Egypt with the total hydrological and agricultural security that was the original rationale for the High Dam. Population increases will also require Ethiopia and the Sudan to Graph 1. Egyptian Agricultural Production and Population.

Graph 2. Ethiopian Agricultural Production and Population.

Graph 3. Sudanese Agricultural Production and Population.

expand food production dramatically, but there are few avenues open to Ethiopia for such expansion, and the Sudan will require greater amounts of irrigation water - amounts that do not exist. Given the current co-basin's population growth, the question to be asked is whether they will be able to maintain a reasonable degree of food self sufficiency or whether they will become dependent on food imports. Among the basin states, seven are least developed countries with per capita annual income ranging from 120 to 310 US dollars. The relationship between population growth and poverty is important - if the growth of the economy is not sufficient to absorb and remunerate rapidly expanding labor forces, poverty will not be reduced. The Nile basin countries have a very low financial base and are internationally indebted. Rapid population growth combined with international debt begs the question of whether meaningful economic development is possible. Reducing population growth would be the single most beneficial development in terms of addressing problems of feeding populations and enabling the formulation of sustainable and economic water use policies. Controlling population growth would also reduce political tensions over water availability. It is urgent that a conceptual framework be developed linking population, including its sociocultural systems, with the various functions of water in the landscape, elaborating the connection between environment and development. Increases in populations and demand for higher standards of living dictate that natural resources be developed to the maximum benefit of humankind. Agriculture/Irrigation Even more than population pressure, yet directly linked, agriculture lies behind most of the region's water problems. Given the present composition of their overall economies, the major determinant of the water balance remains the agricultural sector. The Nile has provided the basis of agricultural development in Egypt and the Sudan since the start of agriculture about 7,000 years ago, and for political reasons, most East African nations have adopted policies of self-sufficiency when dealing with food supplies. In the Nile basin agriculture accounts for at least 80% of all water consumption. (See Maps 8, 9, and 10 in appendix.) Whereas a few liters of water per day are a basic minimum for human survival, at least a ton per day is required to produce the food needed for a reasonable diet for just one person. Ideally, all of the water used for agriculture should be passed through a crop on its way into the atmosphere or to sea, and much of it actually is. However, that does not necessarily mean that it is used most efficiently. There is little doubt that the most dramatic improvements in the use of water can be made in the agricultural sector. To begin with, certain current water use practices should be discouraged. Among these are the irrigated production of water-guzzling crops in arid regions that can readily be imported from water-rich regions; and the continued reliance on inefficient irrigation methods that tend to waterlog and salinize the soil. For example, in Egypt, the growing of rice and sugar cane, which both require a great deal of water, is questionable. In the hot climate, the return on agricultural yield per unit of water evaporated is poor and thus inefficient. Also, the most prevalent method of irrigation in the region is still the surface flooding of basins or furrows, a process that has, at best, a 50 percent efficiency. This irrigation technique involves the needless percolation or runoff of half or more of the water delivered. As viable alternatives, sprinkler irrigation can be operated at an efficiency of 70 percent or more, while drip irrigation can attain an efficiency as high as 90 percent if competently managed. Agriculture has a significant impact on water - it influences not only the quality of water passing on to downstream parts of the river basin, but flow as well. Land use also involves waste handling and the output of chemicals to the atmosphere, the land, and the water bodies, polluting the water circulating in the system. Proper management, therefore, demands that land and water management be integrated. As a result, the basin nations need to cooperate with each other in their respective agricultural planning. A partial solution could lie in the distribution of different crops to areas of the basin where they would be most bountiful. For example, water intensive or long season crops could be grown in the upper basin while crops requiring less water and growing time could be produced in the lower basin. Agricultural trades between the states could then ensue.

With the lowest per capita arable land base in Africa, and with a rapidly increasing population, sustainability of agriculture in Egypt has now become a critical issue. In Egypt, the major resource constraint to sustainable agricultural development is water, not land. Less than 4% of the country's land area is cultivated at present. Egyptian agroclimatic conditions are particularly suitable for irrigated agriculture and the technology already exists for substantial increases in crop yields. It has been estimated that the yield in most crops could be increased by one-third or more. The High Dam at Aswan has assured two crops per year, but there exists every possibility that by using shorter term crop varieties, a third crop could be introduced - judicious crop selection could help achieve greater yields without use of additional water. The scope for agricultural improvement is enormous and the return on investment is high. Egypt has significant quantities of irrigation drainage water that could be reused, and increased efficiency of water utilization could free up even more water for alternative uses, in Egypt and elsewhere.
the Sudan
In the 1970s, the Sudan was widely perceived to be a potential breadbasket capable of alleviating the growing food deficit in the Middle East. Unfortunately, these high expectations have not yet been realized, apparently owing to poor management. The potential is still there, however. Within the Sudan there is still much highly fertile and easily irrigable land, given adequate river control. Plans for irrigation in the Sudan are concerned with the rehabilitation and modernization of existing agronomic designs, intensification of cropping, and the development of new irrigation schemes.
At present Ethiopia cultivates 90 thousand hectares of irrigated land, compared to Egypt's 3.2 million hectares, most of which is located in its eastern parts. In all only 4 percent of the potentially irrigable land has been developed. The implication that Ethiopia might utilize water to irrigate even half of its 3.7 million irrigable hectares is very significant to downstream users. The fact that it has an estimated average of 112 km3 of water available for use annually means that Ethiopia has the possibility to command sufficient water to irrigate a much greater area than currently irrigated in Egypt and the Sudan combined. The basic problem facing Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Sudan is thus a familiar one: there is not enough Nile water available to complete all of the irrigation schemes on the drawing boards of these three riparian nations. (See Table 2.) Adding to this already tense situation is the possibility that Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya will bring another 1/2 million acres under irrigation by the year 2000. If this occurs, these upstream states will certainly pull greater amounts of water from their Nile resources, thus reducing further the amount available to downstream nations. (See Graph 4.) As time progresses, the need for water to keep pace with the expansion of irrigated agriculture will have to compete with water needs for other purposes. Water requirements for the domestic sector will continue to increase because of increasing population. Industrial water demands will also increase significantly; thus the amount of water available for agriculture will decline, forcing the agricultural sector to do more with less. This therefore requires an efficient high input agriculture making intensive and effective use of land and human resources.
Table 2: Projected Water Balance Sheet - Year 2000 Supply (as calculated at Aswan) Mean discharge assumed in Nile Waters Agreement 84.0 km3 Actual increase in century mean 4.1 km3 Benefit of Jonglei Phase I 3.8 km3 Total 91.9 km3 Demand (as calculated at Aswan) Egyptian 68.9 km3 Sudanese 32.0 km3 Ethiopian 2.0 km3 Total 102.9 km3
Graph 4. Projected Irrigated Areas.

Evaporation The heavy evaporation and general dryness of the climate in Egypt and most of the Sudan have severe implications. (See Figure 7.) For example, substantial water losses from the surface of Lake Nasser occur, which, estimated at about 10 x 109 m3 per year, eliminate approximately 10% of the reservoir's net storage volume. In southern Sudan, enormous amounts of water, estimated to total at least 20 bcm, are lost in the Sudd swamps each year. As if those facts are not alarming enough, evaporation losses are likely to increase over the next century. Although these may be partially compensated for by the increased precipitation yield over the White Nile catchment, the need for completion of water preservation projects and other planned water conservation methods is implied. Measures to reduce evaporative losses have been under consideration for many years; however, substantial political, social, and environmental problems are associated with most of the proposals and have thus far blocked most efforts. Opportunities exist that could substantially reduce evaporative losses in the Nile basin. Storing more of the rivers' waters in Ethiopian highland reservoirs, where evaporation is much lower than in Egypt's Lake Nasser, could result in more water for all downstream countries. Shifting the major storage from Lake Nasser to reservoirs located in Ethiopia would reduce water losses not only because the climate in Ethiopia is less evaporative than the desert climate of Egypt, but also because the topography of the Blue Nile gorge in Ethiopia allows for a more favorable volume-to-surface ratio. The proposed upstream reservoirs would also regulate the water flow to the possible benefit of both upstream and downstream users. Other opportunities for cooperation exist in the Sudan. The reservoir behind the Jebel Aulia Dam on the White Nile, 40 km south of Khartoum, has annual evaporation losses of about 2.8 bcm. Elimination of this reservoir would substantially reduce these losses. Works upstream in the Southern Sudan could substantially increase the total water available by draining the marshes of the Sudd. The potential yield from Sudd projects could provide an additional 14 km3 per annum. Finally, over 200 possible water storage combinations exist in the upper riparian states, which would significantly reduce water losses from evaporation. However, implementing any one of them will require accord and cooperation between all basin countries. All Nile countries, in the long term, would benefit by working together to reduce evaporative losses on a basinwide scale. Figure 7. Evaporation's Effect on Water Supplies.

Constraints to Basinwide Planning Nile Waters Agreements The quest for basinwide management was actually begun by the British, who held sway over the greater part of the Nile basin until the middle of the twentieth century. Their idea was to develop the entire basin in an integrated fashion, through a series of dams controlling the outflow from the equatorial lakes feeding both tributaries and a canal for the White Nile to bypass the Sudd. Prospects for the comprehensive integrated development of the Nile basin dimmed when British colonialism ended and the newly independent basin nations began to assert their distinct national interests. From 1898 until the late 1940's attention on the waters of the Nile focused almost entirely on the irrigation needs of Egypt and the Sudan. The possible future requirements of Ethiopia and the other basin nations were ignored. The countries at the headwaters of the Nile, with substantial annual rainfall, were not thought of as areas where irrigation might be needed, despite the unpredictability and uneven distribution of rainfall in some parts and a high level of aridity in others. The most recent, and most famous, accord was the Nile Waters Agreement of 1959. The agreement assumed the following availability and proposed allocations (in km3):

Average Annual Nile Flow 84 Reservoir Losses Due to Evaporation and Seepage (10) Net Water Availability per Annum 74 Allotment to the Sudan 18.5 Allotment to Egypt 55.5 Total Water Usage per Annum 74
No other potentially interested party or state was consulted about the final agreement between Egypt and the Sudan which was announced in Cairo and Khartoum on November 4, 1959. The upstream states' reaction was that the downstream states had simply divided the recognized average flow of the Nile between themselves, leaving nothing for any other countries. This is exactly what happened, and the inequity continues to the present day. Although the Sudan has yet to utilize its full share of water, Egypt already uses its full allotment plus the surplus that the Sudan does not use, thus fully exploiting all available water resources. Ethiopia and other nations have over the last 40 years stressed their rightful entitlement to the use of Nile water. Since they were not included in the 1959 Agreement between Egypt and the Sudan, they therefore do not feel bound by the treaty in any way and contend that they have a right to exploit natural water resources within their borders. The current situation is characterized by distrust, disagreement, adversarial actions, and threats. It is completely unproductive and unfair. In addition to the 1959 Agreement, six other major agreements regarding the utilization of the Nile waters have been signed in modern history: none of them included more than three states. It is obvious that such a fractured approach will not serve to promote the interests of all nations. It will be necessary to develop a basinwide management strategy for the future and to renegotiate a new Nile Waters Agreement that includes all nine riparians. Despite the long-term necessity of negotiating a new agreement, there are numerous barriers to such an accord that must be addressed. These include, among others, factors such as perpetual political and economic instability, lack of skilled manpower, and a shortage of financial resources. Control The concern for sovereignty is a major obstacle in the way of integrated international river development. Confidence must be felt between neighbors before they are willing to commit treasured natural resources to interdependent development and management. "Even where states are willing to cooperate for mutual benefit, each generally desires to preserve as much control as possible over territories and resources within its own boundaries." Because Egypt and the Sudan are the most dependent on the Nile waters for survival, they are extremely concerned with securing their water supplies. It has been stated that, "the national security of Egypt, which is based on the water of the Nile, is in the hands of other African countries." This makes Egypt especially wary of development schemes proposed by upstream riparians. Two possible ways of assuring Egypt and the Sudan of their water supplies would be for all the countries to develop and agree upon specific operating rules for upstream reservoirs and agree to abide by general principles for water sharing. Not one of the riparian states to the south of Egypt has implemented any water schemes that could threaten Egypt or the Sudan's water resources - Egypt's Aswan High Dam is the only scheme with far reaching consequences for a neighboring country. One reason for this is that the other Nile countries are extremely poor and none of them, with the exception of the Sudan, have been able to get assistance from donor nations or lending institutions for any major water projects. A more important reason, however, is political: all nine riparian states have been ravaged by civil war or engaged in interstate warfare, which is thwarting development. Equitable Use For a development strategy to be sustainable, it must consider the achievement of a reasonable and equitably distributed level of economic well-being among basin states. Basinwide cooperation should be founded on principles of equitable apportionment of the drainage basin waters in such a manner as to both meet the needs of co-riparian states and minimize disadvantages to them. The term "equitable" does not necessarily imply equal division between the nations involved. Rather, its application to specific cases must be flexible, taking into account a wide range of factors. What constitutes reasonable and equitable is the crux of all water-sharing agreements and is open to widely different interpretations. Population size, geography, climate, historical use, and availability of other water sources are among the many factors that could be taken into account in determining equitable allocations among basin countries, but a clear formula for doing so does not exist. Definitions of equitable utilization must be negotiated and applied to any future Nile water agreements. International Law Unfortunately, there are no well-established international laws on river basins that could help lead the Nile states to a cooperative understanding. As previously stated, the current situation is such that Egypt and the Sudan, who do not contribute to the water resources, are the main users while the rights of the other seven riparians have been denied. The first step in international law development must be the promulgation of a set of principles on which to base a legal code. For shared river basins, the question is which nation should be given priority: whether the one upstream or its neighbor downstream; the nation whose territory contributes most to the resource or the one that occupies the greater proportion of the watershed; the nation with the greater need or the one with the greater population; the nation that has used the resource longest or the one with fewer alternative sources. In the absence of an agreed set of principles, it is typically the nation with the greater power or the stronger international alliances whose interests predominate. This is what occurs in the Nile region. Almost all the nations lack hydrological data, capital, modern technology, and support from international organizations and donor countries. Egypt is the only riparian possessing advanced technology, river basin information, and adequate financial backing by developed countries and international organizations. International laws would help promote a basinwide perspective for river resource development, and would bolster support for the less developed basin nations. Advancement Toward Basinwide Management New Agreements Even though the above constraints to basinwide river management exist, several compelling reasons for such development necessitate the renegotiation of a Nile Waters Agreement in the near future. The most important are the demographic and agricultural trends in Nile Basin states. A new agreement should focus on opportunities for expanding the usable yield of the Nile River and encourage interdependencies among basin countries, the general objective being the maintenance and enhancement of the overall social and economic development of all people in the basin. Cooperation based on clearly identified objectives will accrue benefits to all nine countries. Some of the possible components of a new agreement that would lead to collective improvements are discussed below. Water Markets It could be possible for the Nile states, especially Egypt, the Sudan, and Ethiopia, to buy and sell water rights from one another. The establishment of a mechanism for basinwide buying and selling of water would be one of the most significant innovations that could be introduced in a new water agreement. A regional water market would have numerous benefits. Foremost among these would be the ability of a market to allocate water to areas where it will have the highest returns, thus promoting regional economic development. Second, it would encourage sustainable agricultural policies and judicious crop selections, since overuse of a nation's water allotment would mean having to pay for water. Third, if a new treaty guaranteed that a certain proportion of each country's share of Nile water would be available to be traded, it would probably be easier to reach agreement on the allocation of the long-term Nile yield among Egypt, the Sudan, and Ethiopia. Fourth, markets could be used to assist with rationing during times of water shortage. Trading A basinwide development plan should take into account the natural occurrence and location of the resource and the potential for development and use of the Nile waters in each country. Development in one nation should aim to maximize the benefits for as many other riparian states as possible. For example, hydroelectric power in Uganda and Ethiopia could benefit several other riparians, while increased agricultural production in Egypt and the Sudan could do the same. Ethiopia's potential for hydropower development is enormous. A proposition of far-reaching potential importance to the future of Nile water supplies would be the construction of a series of dams in Ethiopia. It is argued that Egypt's development is constrained more by lack of power than lack of water. Thus, a mutually beneficial arrangement would appear to be possible with respect to water and power, whereby Egypt would agree to a greater water allocation for Ethiopia and to the construction of Blue Nile Reservoirs on the condition that a certain percentage of the electricity generated would be sold to Egypt at a specified price. Because of Egypt's growing demands for electricity, the Blue Nile Reservoirs may be more valuable for their hydroelectric power generation than for water regulation and storage. Reservoirs would also control Blue Nile floods, which could be particularly beneficial to the Sudan. Added upstream storage would facilitate expansion of the Sudan's gravity-fed irrigated areas, which in turn would mean greater crop production. It could be possible to negotiate a trade arrangement whereby Ethiopia trades electricity to Egypt and the Sudan in return for agricultural and/or industrial products. Although it may seem odd in light of the current trend toward a world economy, the nine states of the Nile basin, though connected by the river are not moved to relate intensely with each other. The dominant trading partners of all nine nations for both exports and imports are the industrialized economies of Europe, North America, and the Far East. The basin states do not have a history of trading amongst themselves. Establishing trade relationships through a basinwide agreement would be a novel approach that could provide unrealized gains within the region. Nile Basin Commission Among the basin countries, there must be at least a latent willingness to work for a cooperative agreement and accept its obligations: this is crucial for states to be able to address joint problems. In terms of willingness to cooperate the most encouraging sign is the existing proposal for a new basinwide commission to include all nine member states. Egypt and the Sudan have submitted a draft proposal to the Nile riparian states for the establishment of a Nile Basin Commission. The Commission, to be composed of one representative from each country, would assist the riparian states in cooperating to draft rational plans for the conservation, allocation, and development of the water resources of the entire Nile basin. Because it bestows a spirit of cooperation, advances mutual interests, and settles issues through discussion and negotiation, this framework is gaining acceptance within the basin states. A New Nile Waters Agreement In order to negotiate a new agreement among all basin states, several things must occur: the first is that other riparians must be able to make credible commitments to Egypt with respect to future shared development. Second, the upstream riparians have very few people with the necessary hydrological expertise or knowledge of the history of Nile water management efforts to participate effectively in negotiations; they must train or hire educated people to help with this. Third, in all of the riparian countries, Nile water issues are being handled primarily by diplomats - scientists must begin to play a greater role. Last, any new policies or potential agreements must be shared with and agreed to by all states. There are four types of favorable conditions that can exist among shared river basin countries: (1) the countries have the same technical perception of problems within the basin; (2) the countries share similar values and tastes for goods and services such as environmental quality or river basin development; (3) the countries use the same technologies for production activities; and (4) between countries there exists an extensive network of transnational and transgovernmental contacts. Unfortunately, the Nile basin states currently have none of these commonalties. A new compact should address these issues through mechanisms for bringing all sovereign states into equal membership of a community to equitably utilize land and water resources and to protect the physical, biological, and social environment. Along with the above suggestions, other general recommendations for the nations include: preparing national water plans, designing and conducting adequate water studies on the river basin, introducing improved storage/augmentation projects, and developing the most efficient uses for water. Each country's right to use the Nile waters within their territory should be recognized, as long as it does not cause appreciable harm to other riparian users. Much can be done to promote efficient use of water and to augment water supplies. Integrated river basin development should be perceived as a set of anthropogenic activities which takes place in an interlinked and complex ecosystem. The Nile basin is one such system which represents a very large and highly valued hydrological unit. It is only when a meaningful, comprehensive, and integrated strategy and plan of action is developed and implemented that the problems of the Nile nations can be tackled effectively. It should be stressed that the basin's environment should be seen as one ecological entity and that its sustainability requires concerted action by all basin states. Regional and Local Management Strategies The value of the Nile's water varies among the nine basin nations with respect to their uses for irrigation, hydro-electric power, navigation, water-based recreation, and industrial and municipal purposes. Ideally, Nile water should be divided in such a way that the allocation of a quantum supply to one individual nation can improve the well-being of that country without decreasing the well-being of the other eight nations. Basinwide management strategies are best suited to address these issues and can provide the greatest number of benefits to the most people. However, they cannot work alone: they must be supported by management strategies at lower levels - regional and local. Together these three levels provide a comprehensive approach to planning and development. Regional Management Integrated water management implies that while water is, by itself, a system, it is also a component of and actor in larger systems. In that respect, the interactions between water, land, and the environment must be addressed, recognizing that changes in any one may have consequences for the others. This is a regional management perspective. Interests here focus on issues such as erosion control, pollution control, wetlands preservation, agricultural drainage, and recreational water use. Currently in the Nile basin, the countries with the greatest potential to impact water scarcity at the regional level are Egypt and the Sudan. Before constructing the Aswan High Dam, groundwater was used as a supplement to irrigation in the winter, but since that time this practice has fallen into decline. This is unfortunate because Egypt's available groundwater storage is estimated to be around 400 km3 - considerably larger than that of Lake Nasser (130 km3) and unlike the lake, aquifers are recharged through irrigation and are not subject to evaporative losses. Groundwater resources in the Sudan are also available for development. Although small, they are, nevertheless, resources and are estimated to have a potential yield of 2 km3 per year. Since Egypt and the Sudan are the major users of water in the basin, it is reasonable that they should put forth an effort to utilize all the water resources within their own borders in efforts to reduce the amounts they take from other upstream countries who will themselves need more water in the future. Local Management The local level of integrated water management accepts that water comprises an ecological system formed by a number of interdependent components. Each element may influence other components and, therefore, needs to be managed with regard to its interrelationships. Local water development and allocation is not only a quantitative problem: with intensified water use, pollution becomes rampant. At this level of integration, management attention is directed toward joint consideration of such aspects as water supply and demand, wastewater treatment and disposal, and water quantity and quality. Controlling demand, rather than supply, at the local level will prove cost-effective and sustaining for all Nile basin states. The demand for water by a society is not a preordained, unquestionable quantity that must be satisfied at all costs simply because it exists or is claimed, yet the prevailing supply orientation treats demand as a "given" that must be satisfied by ever-greater supply. What is needed is a more balanced approach that regards demand as a variable quantity to be controlled, and recognizes conservation, efficient use, and protection of quality as primary goals of rational water resource management. Nile states wishing to resolve ongoing water disputes must go beyond bickering over competitive allocation of existing supplies for traditional uses and instead concentrate on longer-term programs. Such schemes should be aimed at augmenting supplies, avoiding waste, improving utilization efficiency, and capturing wastewater for treatment and reuse. Implementing conservation measures, on any scale, tends to be far less expensive than the construction of capital-intensive projects such as desalination plants and dams. Industries and households could recycle and reuse water for many purposes, thus reducing the need to increase supply. At present there is much latitude for improving the way Nile water is used on a local level, and doing so seems the most immediate, practical, and economical approach to tackling the water shortage. In other words, think basinwide - act locally. Cooperative Policy Formulation Redistributive politics is a term used to describe the reallocation of wealth and income or goods and services, or control over resources between or within nations. For purposes of an international rivers discussion, redistributive politics is more widely defined to also include those controversies in which one group must give up something directly to another group. This would include reallocation of river water rights and the redistribution of authority between nations. Establishing or changing the allocation of water rights for a major international river such as the Nile is a substantial political undertaking on any level. Hydrologic, economic, and foreign policy considerations influence the Nile nations' policies toward cooperation on their international watercourse. Improving international relations will help form basinwide management policies, but the success of such policies in the international arena depends greatly on conditions that exist within the basin countries. To effectively co-manage a water resource, policies geared toward cooperative efforts must be developed at all management levels. Policies for cooperative river basin management may be advanced from any number of different sources, including interest groups, parliamentary committees, political leaders, and/or government departments. One possible way to begin this process would be to divide responsibility between the different levels. The local and regional levels could have day to day responsibility over the resource in question, while the basinwide management group would have the authority to oversee all activities and to initiate international negotiations when necessary. Opening lines of communication and sharing information between and among the nine Nile riparians would be the first step toward forming cooperative policy-making coalitions. A nonpolicy approach toward integrated basinwide management is based on economics. It may be possible to apply market mechanisms as a means of achieving better allocations of water. With this approach, each unit of water could be demanded and used where it would give the highest value in return. In addition, the cost of supplying the water demanded could ideally be reduced if its development and distribution are taken care of by actors in the market, as compared to arrangements made by a political or administrative system. From a resource perspective, a demand-management approach is promising, since it tends to reduce overconsumption, thus making relatively more water available for all of the Nile nations. The question of how to begin the implementation of any of the water management strategies discussed is extremely difficult. The need for cooperative effort is clear, but the force to propel their achievement has not yet been strong enough to overcome the many obstacles inherent in such processes. Before cooperative efforts can benefit any of the Nile nations, new policies and agreements for water allocation and use must be reached. Unfortunately, the constraints involved are of such magnitude that it will likely require a serious threat to the livelihood of more than one riparian before serious efforts are initiated. It is, however, most encouraging that common problems are being identified and acknowledged, and possible joint working groups are being considered between nations who have historically been linked only by a common water source. The Nile states are far from reaching the point where they act cooperatively for mutual benefit, but strides are being made toward that end. Conclusions Increasingly and inevitably, water has been and will continue to be a complex, emotional issue in the water-scarce East African Nile River basin. The current water situation could provide motivation for both violent conflict and cooperative effort. In considering prospects for the future, one must remember that the Nile basin is a unique and single geographical, hydrological unit. All people living in the basin, regardless of their great ethnic, cultural, religious, and political differences, depend on the same river, and hence on one another's use of it. There is no single solution to the Nile Basin's water problems and ultimately a combination of efforts and innovative ideas must be applied to a new accord. A neoteric respect for water must replace present utilitarian views which are founded on mechanical, disconnected views: a new professionalism must be introduced whereby water is properly acknowledged as a finite, vulnerable, and multifunctional resource. To keep pace with population growth and provide a higher standard of living, the Nile states must utilize all available land, water, and related resources intensively, efficiently, and sustainably. Decisions made by each country regarding investments in water resource development, new irrigation schemes, and industrial projects will have consequences far into the future when available water resources will be in much greater demand. Sharing expertise, opening access to hydrologic data and exploring joint water conservation and supply projects offer some of the best opportunities for reducing the risk of future tensions over water in the Nile basin. Efficient management of the basin as a whole will require international coordination and integration based on the equitable sharing of the invaluable resources of water and energy contained in this unique river. Ultimately, all countries in the Nile basin stand to gain from cooperation in the development and sustainable utilization of the river's water supply. "Where nature conspired to provide common resources, there can be no ultimate independence, only mutual dependence."
Appendix - Maps Map 1 - Annual Internal Renewable Water Resources in the Nile Basin. This map illustrates the amount of water that flows annually through each Nile riparian, including rivers, rain, and groundwater. Amounts include flows from other countries and do not necessarily represent water that is directly available for use. (Source: World Resources Database, File WA22101.)

Map 2 - Nile Basin States Total Annual Water Withdrawals This map depicts the pattern of freshwater use in the Nile basin in cubic kilometers per year. (Source: World Resources Database, File WA22106.)

Map 3 - The Nile River Catchment Basin This map shows the outline of the Nile River Watershed area which represents ten percent of the entire African continent. (Source: Abate, p. 228.)

Map 4 - The Nile River in the Sudan and Ethiopia A closer look at the White Nile (flowing north toward Khartoum from the lacustrine states on the left), the Blue Nile (flowing north toward Khartoum from Lake Tana on the right), and the Atbara (meeting the main Nile north of Khartoum). (Source: Digital Chart of The World.)

Map 5 - The Nile in Egypt A closer view of the Nile river as it flows through Egypt. The High Dam at Aswan is represented (red triangle at Aswan) and Lake Nasser (the reservoir created by the dam) is shown. Note the locations of all major Egyptian cities along the river, and the fact that no water is introduced to the Nile in Egyptian territory. (Source: Digital Chart of the World.)

Map 6 - Intermittent Water in the Nile River Basin During the wet season flooding occurs all along the main Nile and its tributaries. During this time the Blue Nile contributes approximately ninety percent of the united Nile's flow. (Source: Digital Chart of the World.)

Map 7 - Permanent Water in the Nile River Basin During the dry season the floods recede and the desert returns. During the dry months the White Nile sustains the flow of the main Nile river. (Source: Digital Chart of the World. )

Map 8 - Annual Water Withdrawals for Agriculture The yearly water withdrawals for agriculture are linked to the annual crop production of the Nile states. Note that the areas which are most agriculturally intensive are also generally the most arid area of the Nile basin. (Source: World Resources Database, File WA22109.)

Map 9 - Annual Water Withdrawals for Domestic Use This map illustrates the yearly amounts of water used for domestic purposes in the Nile states. (Source: World Resources Database, File WA22109.)

Map 10 - Annual Water Withdrawals for Industrial Use This map depicts the yearly amounts of water used for industrial purposes in the Nile states. (Source: World Resources Database, File WA22109.)

References Abate, Zewdie. Water Resources Development in Ethiopia: An Evaluation of Present Experience and Future Planning Concepts. Reading, Lebanon: Ithaca Press, 1994. Anderson, Ewan. "Making Waves on the Nile." Geographical Magazine, Vol. 63, April, 1991, pp. 10-13. Biswas, Asit K. "Environmental Sustainability of Egyptian Agriculture: Problems and Perspective." Ambio, Vol. 24, No. 1, February, 1995, pp. 16-20. Burchi, Stefano. Preparing National Regulations for Water Resources Management: Principles and Practice. FAO Legislative Study No. 52. Rome: FAO-United Nations, 1994. Butler, Daniel. "A World in Hot Water." Accountancy, Vol. 116, December, 1995, pp. 28-30+. Dinar, Ariel and Aaron Wolf. "International Markets for Water and the Potential for Regional Cooperation: Economic and Political Perspectives in the Western Middle East." Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 43, October, 1994, pp. 43-66. Dinar, Ariel and Edna Tusak Loehman (eds.). Water Quantity/Quality Management and Conflict Resolution: Institutions, Processes, and Economic Analyses. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995. Falkenmark, Malin and Asit K. Biswas. "Further Momentum to Water Issues: Comprehensive Water Problem Assessment in the Being." Ambio, Vol. 24, No. 6, September, 1995, pp. 380-382. --------, and Carl Widstrand. "Population and Water Resources: A Delicate Balance." Population Bulletin, Vol. 47, November, 1992, pp. 1-36. --------, and Riga Adiwoso Suprapto. "Population-Landscape Interactions in Development: A Water Perspective to Environmental Sustainability." Ambio, Vol. 21, No. 1, February, 1992, pp. 31-36. --------. "Middle East Hydropolitics: Water Scarcity and Conflicts in the Middle East." Ambio, Vol. 18, No. 6, June, 1989, pp. 350-352. "The First Commodity." The Economist, March 28, 1992, pp. 11-12. Gleick, Peter H. "Water, War & Peace in the Middle East." Environment, Vol. 36, April, 1994, pp. 6-15+. Hillel, Daniel. Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peace in the Middle East. New York: Oxford University Press, 1994. Howell, P. P. and J. A. Allan (eds.). The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource. Great Britain: Cambridge University Press, 1994. --------, Michael Lock, and Stephen Cobb. The Jonglei Canal: Impact and Opportunity. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press, 1988. LeMarquand, David G. International Rivers: The Politics of Cooperation. Vancouver, BC: Water Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 1977. Maurits la Riviere, J. W. "Threats to the World's Water." Scientific American, Vol. 261, September, 1989, pp. 80-94. Mitchell, Bruce (ed.). Integrated Water Management: International Experiences and Perspectives. London: Belhaven Press, 1990. Murakami, Masahiro. Managing Water for Peace in the Middle East: Alternative Strategies. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1995. Ohlsson, Leif, (ed.). Hydropolitics: Conflicts over Water as a Development Constraint. London: Zed Books Ltd., 1995. Postel, Sandra. "The Politics of Water." World Watch, July-August, 1993, pp. 10-18. --------. Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity. The Worldwatch Environmental Alert Series, ed. Linda Starke. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 1992. United Nations. Natural Resources/Water Series No. 10. Experiences in the Development and Management of International River and Lake Basins. New York: United Nations, 1983. Walsh, R. P. D., M. Hulme, and M. D. Campbell. "Recent Rainfall Changes and their Impact on Hydrology and Water Supply in the Semi-arid Zone of the Sudan." The Geographical Journal, Vol. 154, No. 2, July, 1988, pp. 181-198. Waterbury, John. Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley. New York: Syracuse University Press, 1979. Whittington, Dale, John Waterbury, and Elizabeth McClelland. "Toward a New Nile Waters Agreement," in Ariel Dinar and Edna Tusak Loehman (eds.) Water Quantity/Quality Management and Conflict Resolution: Institutions, Processes, and Economic Analyses. Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 1995. World Resources Database, Baltimore, MD: World Resources Instutite, 1996. Woube, Mengistu. "Environmental Degradation Along the Blue Nile River Basin." Ambio, Vol. 23, No. 8, December, 1994, pp. 519-520. Notes Malin Falkenmark, "Further Momentum to Water Issues: Comprehensive Water Problem Assessment in the Being," Ambio, vol. 24, no. 6, September, 1995, p. 380. "The First Commodity," The Economist, March 28, 1992, p. 11. Sandra Postel, Last Oasis: Facing Water Scarcity, The Worldwatch Environmental Alert Series, ed. Linda Starke (New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 1992), p. 27. Table 1 adapted from the following sources: David A. Francko and Robert G. Wetzel, To Quench Our Thirst, (Ann Arbor, MI: The University of Michigan Press, 1983), p. V. Donald R. Rowe and Isam Mohammed Abdel-Magid, Handbook of Wastewater Reclamation and Reuse, (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, Inc., 1995), p. 32. World Resources Database, (Baltimore, MD: World Resources Institute, 1996), File WA22101. Daniel Butler, "A World in Hot Water," Accountancy, December 21, 1995, p. 28. Daniel Hillel, Rivers of Eden: The Struggle for Water and the Quest for Peach in the Middle East, (New York: Oxford University Press, 1994), p. 269. Ewan Anderson, "Making Waves on the Nile," Geographical Magazine, vol. 63, April, 1991, p. 11. Jan Hultin, "The Nile: Source of Life, Source of Conflict," in L. Ohlsson (ed.), Hydropolitics: Conflicts over Water as a Development Constraint, (London: Zed Books, Ltd., 1995), p. 30. The Jonglei Canal: Impact and Opportunity, ed. Paul Howell, et al. (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1988), p. 65. Z. Abate, "The Integrated Development of Nile Basin Waters," in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 236. Falkenmark, "Middle East Hydropolitics: Water Scarcity and Conflicts in the Middle East," Ambio, vol. 18, no. 6, September, 1989, p. 351. Hillel, p. 210. Three sublevels beyond the three main management levels have also been described: (1) the normative level, where decisions are made regarding what ought to be done (this level identifies current and potential issues that may require attention); (2) the strategic level, where decisions are made regarding what can be done (this level considers the broadest possible range of variables which may be significant for coordinated management of water and associated land and environmental resources - it provides the most comprehensive view); and (3) the operational level, where decisions are made regarding what will be done (direct attention is given to a smaller number of variables that are believed to account for a substantial portion of management problems - this provides insight on a local/regional scale). Integration can and should occur at all of these levels. Source: Bruce Mitchell, "Integrated Water Management," Bruce Mitchell (ed.), Integrated Water Management: International Experiences and Perspectives, (London: Belhaven Press, 1990), pp. 2-4. Information in this section adapted from the following sources: John Waterbury, Hydropolitics of the Nile Valley, (New York: Syracuse University Press, 1979), pp. 4-10. R. O. Collins, "History, Hydropolitics, and the Nile: Nile Control: Myth or Reality?" in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), pp. 110-114. Hillel, pp. 111-119. 1 billion cubic meters (bcm) = 1 cubic kilometer (km3) Hillel, p. 119. Collins, p. 112. Hillel, p. 117. Ibid., p. 119. Ibid. Ibid., p. 118. Hultin, p. 31. Dale Whittington, et al., "Toward a New Nile Waters Agreement," in A. Dinar and E. Tusak Loehman (eds.), Water Quantity/Quality Management and Conflict Resolution: Institutions, Processes, and Economic Analyses, (Westport, CT: Praeger Publishers, 1995), p. 167. World Resources Database, Files FA18101 and HD16101. Ibid. Ibid. The Jonglei Canal: Impact and Opportunity, p. 71. Malin Falkenmark and Jan Lundqvist, "Looming Water Crisis: New Approaches," in L. Ohlsson (ed.), Hydropolitics: Conflicts over Water as a Development Constraint, (London: Zed Books, Ltd., 1995), p. 182. Hillel, p. 213. Asit Biswas, "Environmental Sustainability of Egyptian Agriculture: Problems and Perspective," Ambio, vol. 24, no. 1, February, 1995, p. 16. Hultin, p. 37. The Jonglei Canal: Impact and Opportunity, p. 80. Ibid., p. 82. B. Kabanda and P. Kahangire, "Irrigation and Hydro-power Potential and Water Needs in Uganda - an Overview," in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 223. Masahiro Murakami, Managing Water for Peace in the Middle East: Alternative Strategies, (Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1995), p. 61. Hillel, p. 115. Whittington, p. 169. R. Stoner, "Future Irrigation Planning in Egypt," in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 199. The Jonglei Canal: Impact and Opportunity, p. 79. Falkenmark and Lundqvist, p. 191. P. Howell, "East Africa's Water Requirements: the Equatorial Nile Project and the Nile Waters Agreement of 1929. A Brief Historical Review," in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 97. Hillel, p. 274. Hultin, p. 37. D. Knott and R. Hewett, "Water Resources Planning in the Sudan," in P. P. Howell and J. A. Allan (eds.), The Nile: Sharing a Scarce Resource, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994), p. 209. David LeMarquand, International Rivers: The Politics of Cooperation, (Vancouver, BC: Water Research Centre, University of British Columbia, 1977), p. 18. Hillel, p. 283.