POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT DYNAMICS:  
TEN CASE STUDIES 

ABSTRACTS OF THE CASE STUDIES


Kazuhiro Arai
Evidence suggests that an agricultural transition currently is taking
place in the United States.  This transition consists of an increase in
organic farm acreage as well as an increase in consumer demand for organic
foods.  The purpose of this paper is to chart this sharp rise in organic
produce production and consumption in the United States.  It seeks to link
this transition with other transitions, including fertilizer, herbicide
and pesticide use, as well as an epidemiological and toxicity transition.
In addition, this paper intends to identify particular consumer attitudes
affecting the organic agricultural transition, specifically increased
concerns over pesticide use, overall health and environmental degradation.
Using modeling and graphical methods the paper creates a comprehensive
model for organic consumption behavior.  From this analysis and model,
policies and strategies to increase organic consumption are made. 


Hideo Kuramitsu
It made me special aware of the urbanization in Egypt to attend the last
United Nations Conference, "City Summit, Habitat II", held in Istanbul on
June 1996, and to make a trip to Egypt for three weeks on August 1996.  I
saw a lot of urban problems in Cairo which were the same as what was
discussed in Istanbul.  These urban problems in Cairo made me feel like my
own and think why a lot of people gather this large city and what kinds of
urban problems will be brought about.  In this paper, I made a population
growth model, linked with GDP (Gross Domestic Product), by using STELLA
II.  I found some strong relationships between each distribution of GDP
and its birth or death factor, resulting from the multiple regression.  I
am sure this model may be applicable for further studies of the population
growth in the developing countries. 


Clive Lipchin
The issue of water scarcity is an international environmental concern.
Population growth coupled with consumptive patterns are increasing the
pressure on global water resources essential for the continual survival of
all of earth's living organisms. The Middle East region is becoming the
focus for an impending water crisis that may very well escalate to open
conflict amongst the nations of the region, forced to share common water
resources. This paper focuses on two such conflicts: disputes over the
Tigris-Euphrates river system and disputes over the Jordan river valley
and groundwater resources. Both of these disputes are common in the levels
of mistrust amongst the riparian states and the attitudes of nationalistic
ownership of water resources that are in fact politically independent. The
political volatility and instability of the region, together with such
disputes has led to increasing international concern. Resolving the
conflicts will involve unprecedented long term international cooperation
amongst the riparian states. Policies that will allow for trading
agreements amongst the nations, where each can see the benefits of such
action as overriding the costs is required. In addition, a scaling down of
wasteful and inefficient agricultural and management practices, together
with trading agreements must occur, in light of the characterization of
the region as semi-arid to arid. Nationalistic pride and petty differences
must give way to open cooperation for the good of the region and the
planet as a whole.


Peter Murchie and Rebecca Spector
Evidence suggests that an agricultural transition currently is taking
place in the United States.  This transition consists of an increase in
organic farm acreage as well as an increase in consumer demand for organic
foods.  The purpose of this paper is to chart this sharp rise in organic
produce production and consumption in the United States.  It seeks to link
this transition with other transitions, including fertilizer, herbicide
and pesticide use, as well as an epidemiological and toxicity transition.
In addition, this paper intends to identify particular consumer attitudes
affecting the organic agricultural transition, specifically increased
concerns over pesticide use, overall health and environmental degradation.
Using modeling and graphical methods the paper creates a comprehensive
model for organic consumption behavior.  From this analysis and model,
policies and strategies to increase organic consumption are made. 


Tamana Nishiguchi
                   Burma, which lies on the western edge of mainland
Southeast Asia, is one of the Least Developed Countries (LLDCs).
Historically, its economy was dominated by agriculture, which provides
employment for 60-70 percent of total labor force and accounts for the
country's major export earnings. The history of agricultural development
in Burma started in the mid 1970s when the authorities realized the
important role of agriculture in the entire economy through the failure of
industrialization in the 1960s. Some policies, which emphasized the
introduction of new technology contributed to the progress of Burmese
agriculture. However, other policies hindered it when the "Green
Revolution" reached the saturation point. To achieve sustainable growth of
the economy, the development strategy should take into account the
agricultural sector, in particular, and the rural area, in general.   


Allain Rasolofoson
	The purpose of this project is to analyze the phenomenon of
deforestation in the case of Madagascar which desserves more attention
than that of a simple national plague, considering the uniqueness of many
species within the rich diversity of the country's natural ecosystems. It
aims to attribute possible connections between this phenomenon and other
past or present realities in the country. More precisely, it will
emphasize on the complex dynamics of population and the environment by
treating a family of transitions comprising:

 political transition describing the implications of the successive
regimes, through their policies and regulations, on the land uses.

 social transition treating the most important changes which have
influenced the land uses and the population's agricultural practices.

 economic transition showing the relevant data through the national
history, which affect the agriculture.

 demographic transition indicating also an early stage of urban transition
which affects the profile of the rural area.
	The rest of the paper will be articulated according to the
different political eras defined within the political transition. At the
end, in the actual period of economic depression, an attempt is made to
bring a possible solution through the mobilization of the private sector
into a national program of "integrated patrimony management".


Julie Rodriguez
In the 1950's, Ecuador faced a growing population; a ballooning foreign
debt; and a sagging economy.  Ecuador's riches were composed primarily of
its cultural and biological diversity.  Since then, its gross national
product skyrocketed.  Oil development in Ecuador's Amazonian region is
responsible for this transformation.  Oil development also stimulated
other changes.   It opened the rainforest to logging and settlement.  Land
tenure laws encouraged the landless masses in Ecuador's cities to forge
east to the "unproductive" rainforest region.  Now Ecuador is challenged
with striking a balance between providing for its population and
protecting its environment.  Ecuador can move toward this balance by
increasing its reliance on market forces, reforming land tenure policies,
and by investing in infrastructure, education, and research.  A continued
reliance on oil is unavoidable, but oil developers can be made to adopt
environmentally sound practices to reduce environmental and cultural
costs.  


Hitomi Sasaki
	This paper illustrated the various kinds of human resource,
environmental, social and economical problems caused by the urbanization
transition in Thailand.  In Thailand, there is no official definition of
the urban areas, however, I discussed the transition to Bangkok
Metropolitan Regions from other rural districts to make my ideas clear.  
	Why has Bangkok been expanded as such a huge primate city?  The
principal answer of this question was the centralization of direct foreign
investments toward Thailand since 1986 in order to create economically,
educationally and internationally well developed country.  However, these
investments actually aimed at creating the well developed city, Bangkok,
not the country as a whole.  This economical and political inconsistency
caused the regional imbalances.  A number of people in the rural areas
where no suitable jobs to support their families or the educational
institutes moved to Bangkok to compensate for their needs.  And this
excessive mobility of population to Bangkok caused environmental, social
and economical problems both in Bangkok and in other rural areas. 
	There have been several trials by Thai government to reduce the
regional imbalance and environmental problems in Bangkok. One of the most
significant policies is the National Economical Social Development Plan.
In its Seventh Plan (1992-96), Thai government have carried out the
Metropolitan Regional Structural Plan to decentralize the urban population
by extending the Eastern Seaboard Project and developing the new industry
zone in Northern part of the metropolitan regions (Saraburi Industrial
Complex).  
	These Thai governmental policies are needed to be considered in
terms of how much succeed in the decentralization and reducing the
environmental problems.  However, Thailand have actually just realized
that it should consider the balanced development in both urban and rural
areas, so we should wait at least three years to criticize governmental
policies or bring the new suggestions.                  


Julie Smith
	Freshwater is a substance of paramount importance: it is pervasive
in all biological and physical systems, and its use is inextricably
intertwined with many of society's efforts to enhance economic and social
well-being.  In the arid East African Nile River Basin freshwater is
scarce and widely shared by countries with enormous economic, military,
and political differences; over-exploitation, depletion, and deterioration
of the Niles' waters are prevalent problems.  The Nile River traverses
nine international borders and the water it provides is unevenly
distributed and used; thus the potential for conflict is great.  The Nile
basin countries share several common problems which could be mitigated
through combined efforts.  Instead of opposing each other, they could
direct their attentions toward multinational agreements and policies,
defining collective basinwide management strategies for mutual benefit.
Effectively developing the Nile's waters will require a cooperative
approach, treating the basin as one hydrologic unit and all riparian
states as equal stakeholding partners.


Luejit Tinpanga
	The population can be a positive or negative force to national
development.  In case of Vietnam,  its large population and unequal
distribution of population throughout the country has been one of many
factors that impedes socio-economic development.  The Vietnamese
government has adopted population policy:  family planning programs and
population redistribution since the early 1960s in order to control
population growth rate and reduce high population density in big cities
and deltaic plains.  The paper seeks to study how effective this policy is
and how it has an impact on its population and socio-economic development.
Four sectors were elaborated:  labor force and employment,  agricultural
production,  urbanization,  and forestry.  At the end,  policy suggestions
are included.